Pressure at the Point: Ranking the Season’s Top Point Guards

Ask any NBA expert and they will tell you the same thing: the league is being taken over by guards.

Gone are the days of seven-foot giants exerting their will on their way to the NBA Finals. Instead, guards—point guards especially—have become the focal point of most NBA offenses. More than simply a ball handler and distributor, today’s point guards are legitimate offensive threats, capable of scoring from anywhere on the floor, whether it is behind the three-point line or driving to the rim.

Consider last year’s MVP race: point guards Chris Paul and Tony Parker finished third and fifth, respectively, behind the Miami Heat’s pseudo-point guard LeBron James. This came a year after Derrick Rose won the award in 2011.

So who have been the NBA’s best point guards so far this season? In order to answer that question we need a metric that quantitatively compares each of the league’s starting point guards. By combining Player Efficiency Rating (PER) with a player’s major per 36 minute statistics—points, rebounds, assists and subtracting turnovers—we are left with a “raw score” that encompasses a point guard’s basketball responsibilities and is indicative of his overall season performance.

Utilizing this rating system, the starting point guards for each of the league’s 32 teams were scored and ranked accordingly. In the rare instance where the starter was unclear or may have changed during the season, such as John Wall’s recent return from injury, two point guards were included in the ranking system for select teams.

* Wall returned from injury on 1/12/13 and has only played in 7 games

How do these rankings compare with the rosters for the 2013 NBA All-Star game that were announced yesterday?  This season’s top point guard, Chris Paul, was rightly selected to start the February 17 game for the Western Conference. His counterpart for the Eastern Conference will be the Celtic’s Rajon Rondo, who actually only rates out as the East’s fourth best point guard, even after discounting the recently debuted John Wall.

Luckily the second, third, and fourth best point guards this season will still be included in the All-Star game, as coaches chose Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker as reserves for the West, while reigning Rookie of the Year Kyrie Iriving was selected to be a reserve for the East squad. Philadelphia’s Jrue Holiday, seventh in our rankings and second best among Eastern Conference point guards this season, was also chosen to be a reserve.

Who is the biggest All-Star snub? Golden State’s Stephen Curry was left off the Western Conference roster, despite technically being a top-five point guard this year. Unfortunately, this was mainly the result of such a strong season for the West that has created a logjam at the point guard position. It is telling that the top three point guards in the rankings—Chris Paul (LAC), Russell Westbrook (OKC), and Tony Parker (SA)—lead the same three teams that have held the top three positions in every installment of the APM Rankings this season. San Antonio leads the NBA with a 34-11 record, followed by Oklahoma City at 33-10, and then the Los Angeles Clippers at 32-11. Not that it should be much of a surprise considering how the game has evolved but the three best teams are each led by the one of the three best point guards this season.

With each conference selecting three point guards to represent them in Houston next month, the value and importance of a strong floor general in today’s game is clear. With talent at the point guard position continuing to grow and develop, the top of the point guard list will only continue to become more and more competitive as some of the budding protégés—Irving, Wall, Curry, Holiday—continue to reach their potential and push today’s stars. The NBA has been put on notice: the time of the point guard is coming.

It may already be here.